BITTENSOR · TIME IN THE MARKET
What did holding TAO actually return?
A strong month tells one story. See the outcome across every available completed 3, 6 or 12 calendar-month window.
41 completed 3-month windows · 19 positive · median -5.38% · observed best +450.58% · observed worst -58.84%
Overlapping observations, not odds of a future gain. Each row uses a different starting price. Missing windows are not zero returns.
| Opening month | Closing month | First open | Last close | Price return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 2026-10 | 193.2000 | 236.9400 | +22.64% |
| 2026-07 | 2026-09 | 202.1800 | 300.9200 | +48.84% |
| 2026-06 | 2026-08 | 255.7100 | 230.4000 | -9.90% |
| 2026-05 | 2026-07 | 249.0600 | 193.2000 | -22.43% |
| 2026-04 | 2026-06 | 306.1300 | 202.1800 | -33.96% |
| 2026-03 | 2026-05 | 183.0100 | 255.7100 | +39.72% |
| 2026-02 | 2026-04 | 197.9700 | 249.0600 | +25.81% |
| 2026-01 | 2026-03 | 219.1400 | 306.1300 | +39.70% |
| 2025-12 | 2026-02 | 288.8800 | 183.0100 | -36.65% |
| 2025-11 | 2026-01 | 480.9900 | 197.9700 | -58.84% |
| 2025-10 | 2025-12 | 302.8900 | 219.1400 | -27.65% |
| 2025-09 | 2025-11 | 315.5700 | 288.8800 | -8.46% |
| 2025-08 | 2025-10 | 353.0900 | 480.9900 | +36.22% |
| 2025-07 | 2025-09 | 334.6700 | 302.8900 | -9.50% |
| 2025-06 | 2025-08 | 430.3100 | 315.5700 | -26.66% |
| 2025-05 | 2025-07 | 355.1900 | 353.0900 | -0.59% |
| 2025-04 | 2025-06 | 223.8000 | 334.6700 | +49.54% |
| 2025-03 | 2025-05 | 326.6300 | 430.3100 | +31.74% |
| 2025-02 | 2025-04 | 449.6000 | 355.1900 | -21.00% |
| 2025-01 | 2025-03 | 440.9500 | 223.8000 | -49.25% |
| 2024-12 | 2025-02 | 677.8300 | 326.6300 | -51.81% |
| 2024-11 | 2025-01 | 484.8300 | 449.6000 | -7.27% |
| 2024-10 | 2024-12 | 577.9000 | 440.9500 | -23.70% |
| 2024-09 | 2024-11 | 281.3700 | 677.8300 | +140.90% |
| 2024-08 | 2024-10 | 302.1600 | 484.8300 | +60.45% |
| 2024-07 | 2024-09 | 271.5700 | 577.9000 | +112.80% |
| 2024-06 | 2024-08 | 388.9500 | 281.3700 | -27.66% |
| 2024-05 | 2024-07 | 388.3800 | 302.1600 | -22.20% |
| 2024-04 | 2024-06 | 522.0000 | 271.5700 | -47.98% |
| 2024-03 | 2024-05 | 618.0100 | 388.9500 | -37.06% |
| 2024-02 | 2024-04 | 468.2100 | 388.3800 | -17.05% |
| 2024-01 | 2024-03 | 266.4800 | 522.0000 | +95.89% |
| 2023-12 | 2024-02 | 289.2300 | 618.0100 | +113.67% |
| 2023-11 | 2024-01 | 85.0400 | 468.2100 | +450.58% |
| 2023-10 | 2023-12 | 55.0900 | 266.4800 | +383.72% |
| 2023-09 | 2023-11 | 55.3500 | 289.2300 | +422.55% |
| 2023-08 | 2023-10 | 66.7900 | 85.0400 | +27.32% |
| 2023-07 | 2023-09 | 50.7700 | 55.0900 | +8.51% |
| 2023-06 | 2023-08 | 58.5000 | 55.3500 | -5.38% |
| 2023-05 | 2023-07 | 41.9800 | 66.7900 | +59.10% |
| 2023-04 | 2023-06 | 63.4700 | 50.7700 | -20.01% |
Read the whole window
Return = (last month’s close ÷ first month’s open − 1) × 100. These are observed price endpoints, not the sum of monthly percentages. Prices are exchange-specific TAO/USDT, not USD, total staking return or an executable backtest. Fees, taxes, spread and slippage are excluded.
Windows begin at a UTC month opening and end at the last completed month’s closing price. The first available March 2023 candle is excluded because it can be partial; the current month and any window crossing a missing month are excluded. No 2021 or 2022 prices are invented. End-month filters select completed windows, not individual months inside them.
Adjacent windows overlap. Twelve-month windows ending one month apart share eleven months, so the positive fraction is not an independent probability estimate. Best and worst are only observed endpoints; prices could have moved much further inside a window. This is not a daily volatility, maximum drawdown or future return forecast. A short, changing history can make the median misleading.
Uses the existing hourly cached MEXC monthly candle source ↗. No additional chain RPC or browser market polling.